Iran spent decades and billions of dollars building a network of militias and governments that allowed it to exercise political and military influence across the Middle East, and deter foreign attacks on its soil.
In a matter of weeks, the pillars of that alliance came crashing down.
The departure of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad is the latest strategic catastrophe that will force Iran to rethink decades-old security policies, just as it is confronting the election of President-elect Donald Trump and his promises of new pressure on Tehran.Assad’s removal is also the climax so far in a cascade of events catalyzed by the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7 last year, which resulted in the most fundamental change in Iran’s security landscape since the American invasion of Iraq in 2003. But, while the toppling of Saddam Hussein ultimately provided Iran with opportunity, this time Tehran is at a disadvantage.In more than a year of attacks, Israel has devastated Hamas, Iran’s main Palestinian ally. Since September, Israel has killed most of the leadership of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia that is Iran’s most powerful ally, and sent its surviving top commanders into hiding. Assad’s toppling destroys the remaining front line of what Iran calls its “forward defense,” said Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group’s Iran Project.“The Islamic Republic thought that Hamas’s 7 Oct. attack was a turning point in history. That’s true, but in the entirely opposite direction to what it hoped for,” he said. &ldqu… קרא עוד
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